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The MVP hangover
Barry Bonds got better after his 2003 MVP. Roy Campanella hit .207 after his 1953 one. What every MVP in four sports did the next season, who won it again, and why most come back a little worse.
By Austin · October 17, 2026
An MVP season is usually the best a player will ever have. So what comes after it? We took every MVP in four sports, set the winning season beside the one that followed, and measured how much of it the winner kept.
| Sport | MVPs | Won again | Cut short | Typical next season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball | 189 | 19 | 12 | 92% |
| Basketball | 70 | 19 | 4 | 96% |
| Football | 27 | 3 | 3 | 90% |
| Hockey | 101 | 19 | 7 | 86% |
“Typical next season” is the median: half of the winners kept more of their MVP level, half less, leaving out the seasons cut short (under half the schedule). Each sport is measured its own way: baseball by OPS for hitters, ERA for pitchers, basketball by points, rebounds and assists a game, football by yards a game: passing, rushing and receiving and hockey by points a game for skaters, goals-against average for goalies.
Baseball
Baseball names two MVPs a year, one in each league, and the Baseball Writers' Association of America has voted on them since 1931. Most go to hitters. When a pitcher wins, it usually takes a season for the ages: Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968, Denny McLain's 31 wins the same year.
189 MVP seasons from 1931 on have a finished season after them. 19 winners won it again the next year and 12 had the next season cut short. Of the rest, 36 came back better.
Pitchers: the biggest falls
19 pitchers played a full next season, and the typical one kept 77% of his MVP level. These kept the least:
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollie Fingers | 19816-3, 1.04 ERA, 28 saves | 19825-6, 2.60 ERA, 29 saves | 40% |
| Dennis Eckersley | 19927-1, 1.91 ERA, 51 saves | 19932-4, 4.16 ERA, 36 saves | 46% |
| Bob Gibson | 196822-9, 1.12 ERA | 196920-13, 2.18 ERA | 52% |
| Jim Konstanty | 195016-7, 2.66 ERA, 22 saves | 19514-11, 4.05 ERA | 66% |
| Denny McLain | 196831-6, 1.96 ERA | 196924-9, 2.80 ERA | 70% |
| Willie Hernandez | 19849-3, 1.92 ERA, 32 saves | 19858-10, 2.70 ERA, 31 saves | 71% |
Better the next year: Hal Newhouser (1944, 123%), Sandy Koufax (1963, 108%).
Hitters: the biggest falls
158 hitters played a full next season, and the typical one kept 93% of his MVP level. These kept the least:
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Campanella | 195341 HR, .312 avg, 1.006 OPS | 195419 HR, .207 avg, .686 OPS | 68% |
| Don Baylor | 197936 HR, .296 avg, .901 OPS | 19805 HR, .250 avg, .657 OPS | 73% |
| Cal Ripken | 199134 HR, .323 avg, .940 OPS | 199214 HR, .251 avg, .689 OPS | 73% |
| Bryce Harper | 201542 HR, .330 avg, 1.109 OPS | 201624 HR, .243 avg, .814 OPS | 73% |
| Roy Campanella | 195532 HR, .318 avg, .978 OPS | 195620 HR, .219 avg, .727 OPS | 74% |
| Orlando Cepeda | 196725 HR, .325 avg, .923 OPS | 196816 HR, .248 avg, .685 OPS | 74% |
Better the next year: Frank Thomas (1993, 118%), Ivan Rodriguez (1999, 114%), Yogi Berra (1955, 111%), Barry Bonds (2003, 111%), Barry Larkin (1995, 110%).
Cut short
- Ronald Acuna (2023 MVP): played 49 games in 2024. He tore the ACL in his left knee in May 2024.
- Barry Bonds (2004 MVP): played 14 games in 2005. He had three operations on his right knee in 2005.
- Jose Canseco (1988 MVP): played 65 games in 1989. He broke a bone in his wrist.
- Kirk Gibson (1988 MVP): played 71 games in 1989.
- Willie Stargell (1979 MVP): played 67 games in 1980.
- Dick Allen (1972 MVP): played 72 games in 1973. He broke his leg in a collision at first base in June 1973.
- Vida Blue (1971 MVP): played 27 games in 1972. He held out for a new contract until May 1972.
- Mickey Mantle (1962 MVP): played 65 games in 1963. He broke his foot against an outfield fence in June 1963.
- Bobby Shantz (1952 MVP): played 21 games in 1953.
- Spud Chandler (1943 MVP): played 1 game in 1944. He spent most of 1944 in the Army.
- Hank Greenberg (1940 MVP): played 19 games in 1941. He was drafted into the Army in May 1941.
- Hank Greenberg (1935 MVP): played 12 games in 1936. He broke his wrist in April 1936.
MVPs in a row: Barry Bonds (4, 2001 to 2004), Shohei Ohtani (3, 2023 to 2025), Jimmie Foxx (2, 1932 to 1933), Hal Newhouser (2, 1944 to 1945), Yogi Berra (2, 1954 to 1955), Mickey Mantle (2, 1956 to 1957), Ernie Banks (2, 1958 to 1959), Roger Maris (2, 1960 to 1961), and 8 more pairs.
Basketball
The NBA has named an MVP since 1955-56, chosen by the players until 1980 and by the media since. It's the award most often won by the same player again: centers like Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, and later Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan, won it in clusters.
70 MVP seasons from 1955-56 on have a finished season after them. 19 winners won it again the next year and 4 had the next season cut short. Of the rest, 22 came back better.
The biggest falls
66 winners played a full next season, and the typical one kept 96% of his MVP level. These kept the least:
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilt Chamberlain | 1967-6824.3 pts, 23.8 reb, 8.6 ast | 1968-6920.5 pts, 21.1 reb, 4.5 ast | 82% |
| Moses Malonewon it again | 1981-8231.1 pts, 14.7 reb, 1.8 ast | 1982-8324.5 pts, 15.3 reb, 1.3 ast | 86% |
| Stephen Curry | 2015-1630.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.7 ast | 2016-1725.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 6.6 ast | 86% |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbarwon it again | 1975-7627.7 pts, 16.9 reb, 5.0 ast | 1976-7726.2 pts, 13.3 reb, 3.9 ast | 87% |
| Charles Barkley | 1992-9325.6 pts, 12.2 reb, 5.1 ast | 1993-9421.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast | 87% |
| Russell Westbrook | 2016-1731.6 pts, 10.7 reb, 10.4 ast | 2017-1825.4 pts, 10.1 reb, 10.3 ast | 87% |
Better the next year: Stephen Curry (2014-15, 118%), James Harden (2017-18, 113%), Larry Bird (1983-84, 112%), Steve Nash (2004-05, 111%), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-71, 110%).
Cut short
- Joel Embiid (2022-23 MVP): played 39 games in 2023-24. He tore the meniscus in his left knee in January 2024.
- Kevin Durant (2013-14 MVP): played 27 games in 2014-15. He broke a bone in his right foot.
- Michael Jordan (1997-98 MVP): didn't play in 1998-99. He retired after the 1998 Finals.
- Bill Walton (1977-78 MVP): didn't play in 1978-79. He broke his foot late in 1977-78 and sat out the next season.
MVPs in a row: Bill Russell (3, 1960-61 to 1962-63), Wilt Chamberlain (3, 1965-66 to 1967-68), Larry Bird (3, 1983-84 to 1985-86), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (2, 1970-71 to 1971-72), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (2, 1975-76 to 1976-77), Moses Malone (2, 1981-82 to 1982-83), Magic Johnson (2, 1988-89 to 1989-90), Michael Jordan (2, 1990-91 to 1991-92), and 8 more pairs.
Football
The Associated Press has named an NFL MVP since 1957, and since the late 1990s it has become close to a quarterback's award. Our football stats begin with 1999, so the seasons here run from Kurt Warner's first MVP to the latest one with a season after it; the runs of repeat winners go back to the award's first year.
27 MVP seasons from 1999 on have a finished season after them. 3 winners won it again the next year and 3 had the next season cut short. Of the rest, 8 came back better.
Every MVP since 1999
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19993,956 pass yds, 38 TD, 11 INT | 20003,383 pass yds, 21 TD, 18 INT | 115% |
| Marshall Faulk | 20002,145 yds from scrimmage, 26 TD | 20012,147 yds from scrimmage, 21 TD | 100% |
| Kurt Warner | 20014,830 pass yds, 36 TD, 22 INT | 20021,431 pass yds, 3 TD, 11 INT | 68% |
| Rich Gannon | 20024,689 pass yds, 26 TD, 10 INT | 20031,270 pass yds, 6 TD, 4 INT | 61% |
| Peyton Manningwon it again | 20034,267 pass yds, 29 TD, 10 INT | 20044,557 pass yds, 49 TD, 10 INT | 107% |
| Steve McNair | 20033,246 pass yds, 24 TD, 7 INT | 20041,343 pass yds, 8 TD, 9 INT | 76% |
| Peyton Manning | 20044,557 pass yds, 49 TD, 10 INT | 20053,747 pass yds, 28 TD, 10 INT | 83% |
| Shaun Alexander | 20051,958 yds from scrimmage, 28 TD | 2006944 yds from scrimmage, 7 TD | 77% |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 20062,323 yds from scrimmage, 31 TD | 20071,949 yds from scrimmage, 18 TD | 84% |
| Tom Brady | 20074,806 pass yds, 50 TD, 8 INT | 20081 game | – |
| Peyton Manningwon it again | 20084,002 pass yds, 27 TD, 12 INT | 20094,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT | 112% |
| Peyton Manning | 20094,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT | 20104,700 pass yds, 33 TD, 17 INT | 105% |
| Tom Brady | 20103,900 pass yds, 36 TD, 4 INT | 20115,235 pass yds, 39 TD, 12 INT | 136% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 20114,636 pass yds, 45 TD, 6 INT | 20124,295 pass yds, 39 TD, 8 INT | 87% |
| Adrian Peterson | 20122,314 yds from scrimmage, 13 TD | 20131,437 yds from scrimmage, 11 TD | 71% |
| Peyton Manning | 20135,477 pass yds, 55 TD, 10 INT | 20144,727 pass yds, 39 TD, 15 INT | 86% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 20144,381 pass yds, 38 TD, 5 INT | 20153,821 pass yds, 31 TD, 8 INT | 90% |
| Cam Newton | 20153,837 pass yds, 35 TD, 10 INT | 20163,509 pass yds, 19 TD, 14 INT | 92% |
| Matt Ryan | 20164,944 pass yds, 38 TD, 7 INT | 20174,095 pass yds, 20 TD, 12 INT | 84% |
| Tom Brady | 20174,577 pass yds, 32 TD, 8 INT | 20184,355 pass yds, 29 TD, 11 INT | 95% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20185,097 pass yds, 50 TD, 12 INT | 20194,031 pass yds, 26 TD, 5 INT | 90% |
| Lamar Jackson | 20193,127 pass yds, 36 TD, 6 INT | 20202,757 pass yds, 26 TD, 9 INT | 87% |
| Aaron Rodgerswon it again | 20204,299 pass yds, 48 TD, 5 INT | 20214,115 pass yds, 37 TD, 4 INT | 95% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 20214,115 pass yds, 37 TD, 4 INT | 20223,695 pass yds, 26 TD, 12 INT | 85% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20225,250 pass yds, 41 TD, 12 INT | 20234,183 pass yds, 27 TD, 14 INT | 87% |
| Lamar Jackson | 20233,678 pass yds, 24 TD, 7 INT | 20244,172 pass yds, 41 TD, 4 INT | 106% |
| Josh Allen | 20243,731 pass yds, 28 TD, 6 INT | 20253,668 pass yds, 25 TD, 10 INT | 100% |
Cut short
- Tom Brady (2007 MVP): played 1 game in 2008. He tore the ACL in his left knee in the first game of 2008.
- Rich Gannon (2002 MVP): played 7 games in 2003. He hurt his shoulder.
- Kurt Warner (2001 MVP): played 7 games in 2002. He broke a finger on his throwing hand.
MVPs in a row: Brett Favre (3, 1995 to 1997), Jim Brown (2, 1957 to 1958), Joe Montana (2, 1989 to 1990), Peyton Manning (2, 2003 to 2004), Peyton Manning (2, 2008 to 2009), Aaron Rodgers (2, 2020 to 2021).
Hockey
The Hart Trophy has gone to the player judged most valuable to his team since 1923-24. In the early years seasons were short and scoring swung wildly from one winter to the next, which is why the 1920s fill the top of the list of biggest falls.
101 MVP seasons from 1923-24 on have a finished season after them. 19 winners won it again the next year and 7 had the next season cut short. Of the rest, 24 came back better.
Skaters: the biggest falls
86 skaters played a full next season, and the typical one kept 86% of his MVP level. These kept the least:
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nels Stewart | 1925-2634 goals, 8 assists in 36 games | 1926-2717 goals, 4 assists in 43 games | 42% |
| Frank Nighbor | 1923-2411 goals, 6 assists in 20 games | 1924-255 goals, 5 assists in 26 games | 45% |
| Herb Gardiner | 1926-276 goals, 7 assists in 44 games | 1927-284 goals, 3 assists in 44 games | 54% |
| Howie Morenz | 1927-2833 goals, 18 assists in 43 games | 1928-2917 goals, 10 assists in 42 games | 54% |
| Eddie Shore | 1932-338 goals, 27 assists in 48 games | 1933-342 goals, 10 assists in 30 games | 55% |
| Elmer Lach | 1944-4526 goals, 54 assists in 50 games | 1945-4613 goals, 34 assists in 50 games | 59% |
Better the next year: Bill Cowley (1942-43, 131%), Wayne Gretzky (1980-81, 129%), Bobby Hull (1964-65, 128%), Mario Lemieux (1987-88, 120%), Wayne Gretzky (1979-80, 118%).
Goalies: the biggest falls
8 goalies played a full next season, and the typical one kept 94% of his MVP level. These kept the least:
| Player | MVP season | Next season | As good |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Worters | 1928-2916 wins, 1.15 GAA | 1929-3012 wins, 3.53 GAA | 33% |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 2024-2547 wins, 2.00 GAA, .925 save % | 2025-2623 wins, 2.86 GAA, .895 save % | 70% |
| Jose Theodore | 2001-0230 wins, 2.11 GAA, .931 save % | 2002-0320 wins, 2.90 GAA, .908 save % | 73% |
| Chuck Rayner | 1949-5028 wins, 2.62 GAA | 1950-5119 wins, 2.82 GAA | 93% |
| Al Rollins | 1953-5412 wins, 3.21 GAA | 1954-559 wins, 3.41 GAA | 94% |
| Jacques Plante | 1961-6242 wins, 2.37 GAA, .923 save % | 1962-6322 wins, 2.49 GAA, .912 save % | 95% |
Better the next year: Dominik Hasek (1997-98, 112%), Dominik Hasek (1996-97, 109%).
Cut short
- Taylor Hall (2017-18 MVP): played 33 games in 2018-19. He hurt his knee and had surgery in February 2019.
- Carey Price (2014-15 MVP): played 12 games in 2015-16. He hurt his knee in November 2015.
- Peter Forsberg (2002-03 MVP): played 39 games in 2003-04.
- Mario Lemieux (1992-93 MVP): played 22 games in 1993-94. He had back surgery in the summer of 1993.
- Ted Kennedy (1954-55 MVP): didn't play in 1955-56. He retired after the season (he came back for half of 1956-57).
- Tom Anderson (1941-42 MVP): didn't play in 1942-43. He never played in the NHL again: the Brooklyn Americans folded after the season.
- Eddie Shore (1935-36 MVP): played 20 games in 1936-37.
MVPs in a row: Wayne Gretzky (8, 1979-80 to 1986-87), Bobby Orr (3, 1969-70 to 1971-72), Howie Morenz (2, 1930-31 to 1931-32), Eddie Shore (2, 1934-35 to 1935-36), Gordie Howe (2, 1951-52 to 1952-53), Gordie Howe (2, 1956-57 to 1957-58), Bobby Hull (2, 1964-65 to 1965-66), Stan Mikita (2, 1966-67 to 1967-68), and 4 more pairs.
Why MVPs come back to earth
It’s mostly not a curse. A season good enough to win an MVP is a great player’s great year: his talent plus a run of health, luck and timing that rarely all line up twice. The next season drifts back toward his usual level, which for an MVP is still very good. Statisticians call it regression to the mean, and it shows up in every sport here. It’s why the median sits a little below 100%, not far below it.
The real collapses are rarer and usually have a cause you can name: a broken bone, a torn ligament, a war. The players who got better are often young players still on the way up (Larry Bird in 1983-84, Stephen Curry in 2014-15, Wayne Gretzky at 19 and 20), and their next season was the real peak.
Use it in Career Arc
In Career Arc you draw a career season by season. An MVP year is usually the top of the curve, but not always the end of the climb, and the year after it is rarely a cliff. See when careers peak for the ages behind the curve.
How we counted
Every MVP from the award’s first season in our data (baseball’s from 1931, when the BBWAA began voting), set against the next season the league played, regular season only. Hockey’s 2004-05 season was never played, so a 2003-04 winner’s next season is 2005-06. A next season is cut short when he played under half the schedule, with the schedule taken as the most games anyone played that year (so baseball’s 60-game 2020 and hockey’s 48-game 2013 don’t count against anyone), or, for a baseball pitcher, under half his MVP season’s innings. A season with too little to measure (under 100 plate appearances or 20 innings in baseball, 10 games in basketball and hockey, four in football) is cut short too. Lower is better for ERA and goals against, so those are turned around: an ERA that went from 2.00 to 2.50 is 80% as good. Soccer is left out: the Ballon d’Or is given for a calendar year of club and international football together, not for one season.
About the data
Winners: Lahman’s awards table for baseball, plus the BBWAA’s winners since 2017; Wikipedia’s lists of NBA MVPs, Hart Trophy winners and AP NFL MVPs for the rest, each matched to the player with that name who played that season.
Season stats: the Lahman Baseball Database and MLB’s own season stats since 2022; the NBA’s official season lines for careers that began by 1996, box scores after; the NHL’s season reports; nflverse’s weekly stats (1999 to 2024) and play-by-play for later seasons, which can be a few yards off the official totals.
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